Left to right: Cub Swanson, Kron Gracie, Photos_ Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports, Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

UFC Tampa betting tips – Are you missing out on the perfect bet?

The UFC heads to Tampa, Florida this weekend for a card that may be very overlooked - But not without having some great potential bets

In the main event of upcoming UFC card Joanna Jedrzejczyk will face Michelle Waterson in a fight, which most likely will emerge the next contender for strawweight title fight. Since odds cycle around 1.30 – 3.50, I don’t think it’s worth to bet anything here. However, there is one fight, where odds literally makes me shocked.

UFC on ESPN+ 19: Joanna vs Waterson

Kron Gracie vs Cub Swanson

If you call yourself a fan of MMA, you must have heard of the Gracie name, a Brazilian family which was winning the initial MMA events. The family is considered  inventors and masters of brazilian-jiu-jitsu. They used to dominate many tournaments and fighting competitions. But the key word is used to. MMA developed a lot.

Despite having amazing ground game, Kron Gracie has weak striking and wrestling. He just doesn’t have the tools to take high-level opponents to the ground, so usually he just pulls guard and tries to bait opponents into grappling exchanges.

Cub Swanson might be a 4 fight losing streak, but he only lost to top 10 guys of the world and all of them were competitive. He stuffed all eight takedowns attempted by an elite wrestler, Frankie Edgar, went toe to toe in kickboxing match with Shane Burgos and was beating Brian Ortega up with body shots. Eventually he lost those fights, but I disagree with people, who state “Swanson is done”.

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That being said, one moment of distraction might cause Gracie to initiate clinch, where he can just try to sneak behind back of Swanson and choke him out standing, but I believe that’s not the most possible outcome. Of course, MMA isn’t maths, and it’s possible Gracie improved his wrestling and he will take Cub down and finish him on the ground, but Swanson has the tools to win this fight.

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I think the striking difference will be even bigger, than in grappling exchanges. Swanson is still explosive, lands heavy low kicks and fast body shots. I believe he will hurt his opponents with those and eventually TKO him.

My pick: Cub Swanson
Ohmbet odds: 2.25 (implied probability = 44%)
My probability: 60%

Opposing odds:
Gracie to beat Swanson: 1.64

Article written by Maciej Grochowski

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