UFC 246 Betting Tips: Anthony Pettis vs Carlos Diego Ferreira

After four weeks of Christmas break, UFC is finally back! And the UFC 246 is going to be truly interesting, as the biggest star in MMA, Conor McGregor takes on the fan favourite, Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone.

That being said, I’m more interested in betting on another fight, where odds seem to be a bit strange.

UFC 246: McGregor vs Cowboy

Carlos Diego Ferreira vs Anthony Pettis

Carlos Diego Ferreira was always a versatile fighter, but in the last two years he showed huge improvements in his striking. He destroyed the dangerous Mairbek Taisumov without landing a single takedown. CDF is an aggressive kickboxer, who relies on hand speed and lands many kicks – especially front kicks. He’s very talented BJJ practitioner, but he doesn’t possess great wrestling.

The Brazilian is a volume puncher – he prefers amount over power, fights at a rapid pace and tries to break his opponents. However, his striking defence is lacking and that’s not a good sign when you’re fighting a guy like Anthony Pettis.

“Showtime” is obviously not in his prime anymore, but he’s still dangerous. Pettis fights in the southpaw stance, delivers nasty kicks from both legs and has the power to hurt anyone – he wobbled Nate Diaz, knocked Tony Ferguson down and delivered the first KO loss of Stephen Thompson’s career. He is completely unpredictable, both on the feet and on the ground. If the fight goes to the mat, Pettis can use his crafty BJJ to threaten CDF with submission attempts out of nowhere.

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Despite being two years older, Ferreira has taken less damage and he’s the one in better stage of career. He has better cardio and if the fight goes the distance, he will probably win. But fighting Pettis is a big step up after competing against guys like Kyle Nelson or Mairbek Taisumov – who both rocked CDF – and I don’t think Ferreira should be that big of a betting favourite.

Ferreira is probably going to dictate the terms of fight, until Pettis lands a truly significant strike. But I believe the chances of a game-changing shot are bigger than odds suggest. I favour CDF, but I think in this fight you should either take the underdog, or pass. I decided to roll the dice at 3.00 odds on Ohmbet.com.

My pick: Anthony Pettis
Ohmbet odds: 3.00 (implied probability = 33%)
My probability: 40%

Article written by Maciej Grochowski

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