Betting tips for UFC 245: Usman vs Covington
UFC 245 is going to be an amazing event. With three competitive title fights on the card, I expect pure violence. I have decided to put some money on the main event, and in this article I will try to explain why I did it.
Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington
Both those fighters – the champion and the challenger are quite similar. They both are versatile fighters, pushing insane pace to break their opponents. Both used to be one dimensional wrestlers, but improved their striking skills tremendously. Despite having similar skills and attributes, there are some differences between Usman and Covington.
Usman throws many power punches and heavy low/calf kicks with bad intentions – which obviously costs a lot of energy. That being said, his cardio has always being great. He loves to keep opponents on the fence and terrorise them with the wrestling and dirty boxing… or just take them down and smash them on the ground.
On the other side, Colby uses his boxing to outstrike opponents, land as much as it’s possible, opposite to Usman – Colby throws volume to mainly score points. Same as the champion, Covington aims for putting his rival on their backs.
What will happen when they meet inside the octagon? I believe this is a clash of Kamaru’s power with Colby’s cardio. Neither of them ever faced such a good wrestler, so it’s tough to be confident, but I believe Usman’s power will be too much for Colby to handle. The champion’s strength advantage should let him win at least 3 rounds, and the challenger will probably start to take over in the last 2 rounds.
But winning 15 minutes and surviving last 10 isn’t the only option for Usman’s victory. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he hurt Colby with hook and finished him on the ground. Neither of those fighters is elite puncher, yet both achieved a lot of success in striking due to mixing it with wrestling. Since I give Kamaru grappling edge, I think Colby will have to worry about takedowns for the first time; that surely could affect his striking, cardio and confidence.
To be honest, I’m not crazy about moneyline odds, as 1.51 – 2.55 reflects my thoughts on the fight. I think Usman wins by decision, but it’s possible that he will be fighting emotionally. If he tries to rip Colby’s head off, there’s a chance he wins by KO (that’s why I dislike decision odds) or gasses out (that’s why I dislike moneyline).
However, I think that betting Double Chance – Usman by KO/dec 1.70 makes sense, as I don’t expect submission here. Ohmbet, I’m in.
My pick: Kamaru Usman by KO/TKO/DQ or decision
Ohmbet odds: 1.70 (implied probability = 58%)
My probability: 65%
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Article written by Maciej Grochowski
