UFC 249 Betting Tips: Justin Gaethje will win!
After several weeks of break, UFC is finally back with an event, and we can be damn sure that this event will be amazing!
In the main-event, two top lightweight contenders will compete for the UFC’s interim lightweight belt.
I believe that after UFC 249, every MMA fan will be thankful to Dana White for giving us a great show.
Both Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje are absolute savages, who always bring on an amazing fight. Both of them are looking to finish the opponent and are tough as nails, but those are the only similarities between them.
As much as he’s known for his love to brawl, Gaethje is also known of his hooks and powerful low kicks. He spends a lot of energy on almost every punch thrown, trying to rip head, rib or leg of his opponent, and he really nicely mixes strikes on every dimension.
Gaethje’s left hook – in attacks as well as in counters – is problematic for anyone he faces and could be a very solid weapon against Ferguson.
If Tony was an RPG character, he would be a berserker. He simply pays much more attention to attacks, than to defence. He will gladly take a punch to deliver one – but his insane cardio allows him to deliver at least two.
Ferguson isn’t the most technical striker, but his enormous reach – 15 cm reach advantage over Gaethje – along with his durability is a deadly combination. He fights in both, southpaw and orthodox stances, uses plenty of front kicks, (spinning) elbows, basically throws any crazy thing that comes to his mind.
However, as I said before, Tony has leaky defence, he was wobbled or dropped many times by strikers much worse than Justin Gaethje.
Tony Ferguson has never faced a fighter as dangerous as Gaethje, both in terms of skill and power. Justin has that instinct of a killer and if he hurts an opponent, he won’t let him escape. I think that if Gaethje connects clear punch, he will wobble Ferguson. If he smells blood, it will be a short night for Tony.
That being said, if Ferguson manages to keep Gaethje at the kickboxing distance, hurt him by some elbows or take him down – every occurrence sounds unlikely, but is possible – he will drag Justin through hell and submit him on championship rounds.
If the fight goes to the ground, Ferguson is that kind of guy who can do more harm even if he is on his back than his opponent on top of him. Luckily for Gaethje, he has elite wrestling and Ferguson isn’t the best offensive wrestler – last time he took opponent down 5 years ago!
The last thing I want to mention is circumstances of the fight. Justin stepped in as a replacement, but then the fight was postponed, and extra 3 weeks should work good for Gaethje.
At the same time, Ferguson decided to make championship weight on April 18th, which sounds ridiculous when you consider how dreadful it is to fighter. He will have to dehydrate his brain and body twice within 3 weeks. That’s a good sign for Gaethje bettors, as we have to look for any kind of advantage we can get.
I won’t be surprised at all if Ferguson survives beginning of the fight, fatigues Gaethje and submits him, but I think Justin will knock Tony down and finish him on the ground.
My pick: Justin Gaethje
Ohmbet odds: 2.45 (implied probability = 41%)
My probability: 51%
Article written by Maciej Grochowski
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